Prime Minister Takaichi’s “Art of Coordination”

Let us recall the facts.

On October 20, 2025, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) explicitly stated in their coalition agreement: "We will submit and pass a bill to reduce the number of seats in the House of Representatives during the current extraordinary Diet session." The bill aims to cut at least 45 seats from the current 465. It includes a mechanism to automatically reduce single-member districts by 25 and proportional representation seats by 20 if the electoral system council fails to reach a conclusion within a year.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi accepted Ishin's demands to fulfill her own leadership election pledges. Nobuyuki Baba, the former leader of Ishin, positioned this as an "absolute condition for the coalition." With over 70% of the public supporting the reduction, there were strong expectations for the bill’s passage before the session ends on December 17.

However, as of December 10, although the bill has been submitted to the Lower House Cabinet Committee, deliberations have not earnestly begun. Within the LDP, veteran lawmakers strongly oppose it, fearing that redistricting will destroy their support bases and threaten their status. Meanwhile, six opposition parties are refusing to deliberate, insisting that priority be given to amending the Political Funds Control Act.

In response to questions from Ishin at the plenary session on December 8, Prime Minister Takaichi stated, "I will refrain from answering as Prime Minister; this should be discussed in the Diet." While this response may seem vague, it is actually a pragmatic choice to buy time for internal coordination and to maintain the balance of the coalition.

The Decision on Yasukuni and Its Impact

Sanae Takaichi’s political style excels at this kind of coordination. In the 2025 leadership election, she clearly declared she would visit Yasukuni Shrine even as Prime Minister, solidifying support from conservatives. As the autumn festival approached in October, domestic and international media focused on whether the "first female Prime Minister would visit the shrine 80 years after the war." Given her past visit as Minister of Internal Affairs in 2014—which drew protests from China—expectations among conservatives were high.

Ultimately, however, she postponed the visit. She sent a ritual offering (tamagushi) at her own expense and stated in a press conference that she would "make a decision at an appropriate time." In November, she explained that the schedule overlapped with U.S. President Trump’s visit, and while she hinted at a year-end visit, she has not yet acted on it.

This decision was made to avoid diplomatic friction with China and South Korea, and as a result, stability in Japan-China relations was maintained. Although some conservatives voiced dissatisfaction, her approval ratings did not drop; rather, the unity of the party's conservative wing strengthened. This method of projecting a hardline stance while being flexible in execution is a wise strategy to protect the foundation of her administration.

The Reality of Party Politics and Alternative Solutions

Prime Minister Takaichi’s response to the stalled seat reduction bill is commendable for not ignoring the dynamics within her party. The LDP has many veteran lawmakers, particularly from the Nikai and Nukaga factions, who are deeply concerned that "confusion in electoral districts is unavoidable."

Facing pressure from Ishin, the Prime Minister could have publicly declared, "I will take responsibility," and forcibly suppressed the opposition. Instead, during a party leader debate on November 26, she reached out to Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, urging him to "prioritize seat reduction over the abolition of corporate donations." By doing so, she expanded the framework of the discussion without committing to a specific schedule.

Furthermore, she presented alternative reforms to her own party, such as "lowering ministerial salaries below those of Diet members" and "considering a 20% cut in lawmaker salaries." This has absorbed the frustration of veterans and prevented a split in the party. When former Ishin leader Baba pressed her to proceed "even if it means dissolving the House," Takaichi proposed, "The confirmed census data will be out next autumn. Let’s finalize the details based on that," prioritizing the continuation of the coalition. This step-by-step coordination avoids short-term conflict and contributes to long-term stability.

Balancing Diplomacy with China and Immigration Policy

Prime Minister Takaichi appears hawkish on China, yet here too, her characteristic coordination skills are evident. While she repeats strong phrases like "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency," she maintains the trust of conservatives and upholds the alliance with the U.S. Some may argue she is being provoked by China, but if viewed as a preventive line against China’s strategy of "salami slicing" (gradually moving the red line), her response is reasonable. There is a delicate sense of balance here.

A similar balance is seen in immigration policy. She has clarified her stance: "Accepting foreign workers is necessary, but maintaining public order and culture comes first." She is considering specific regulations based on lessons learned from troubles related to Kurdish groups. Regarding the legalization of separate surnames for married couples, she acknowledges both sides of the argument and plans to submit a bill in 2026. This dual-sided approach reflects diverse domestic opinions while maintaining international trust. Consequently, her administration’s diplomatic approval ratings have remained stable since her inauguration.

Coordination as the Key to Long-Term Governance

Sanae Takaichi’s political style is one of risk management based on a tough image. She navigated the seat reduction bill through delays and alternatives, and balanced conservative support with diplomatic stability regarding Yasukuni. In relations with China and immigration policy, she maintains the impact of her words while shifting flexibly in execution. This is not mere evasion, but a wise strategy enabling a long-term administration.

In today’s international situation, as shown by the U.S.-China rivalry and the crisis in Ukraine, policy continuity is essential. Short-term populism cannot cope with these challenges; a long-term administration supports national stability. Prime Minister Takaichi’s art of coordination satisfies this condition. What may appear to be cunning is actually a calculation to balance interests inside and outside the party. The fate of the seat reduction bill is unclear, but this process itself is a good example of the durability of the Takaichi administration.

Simply put, in the current climate of Japanese politics—where extreme arguments are often favored—realistic policy cannot exist without coordination.