国際政治学者のジョン・ミアシャイマーによる国際情勢

　国際政治学者のジョン・ミアシャイマーが10月31日、ケンブリッジ・ユニオンソサエティ討論で米国の衰退と多極化する社会にあって西側諸国はどうあるべきかという弁論をしていた。とても簡素にまとまっていて、国際政治や日本の安全保障に関心ある人はこれ、見でおいたほうがいいと思うと思った。ついでに、読みやすく書き起こしたので付けたしておく。
　要点を簡単にまとめておくと、ミアシャイマーによれば、米国の国力は現在低下し、世界は一極体制から多極体制へと移行しているが、米国や英国、欧州にとって米国のさらなる衰退は望ましくない。米国が強力であり続けることが、国際社会における安全保障を維持する最善の方法であるとしている。具体的には、国際政治において、ある国の国力がなければ他国からの脅威にさらされやすくなる。このため、米国が「最強であり続けること」が各国の安全確保に必要だと述べている。また、中国は、「屈辱の世紀」の反動で、アジアでの支配的地位を求め、米国のアジアからの撤退を望んでいると指摘している。そのなかで、米国が弱体化すれば、東アジアでの中国に対する脅威への対応が欧州よりも優先され、資源や軍事力が東アジアに集中する必要が生じし、欧州からの米軍の撤退が現実味を帯びる可能性がある。しかし、欧州の安定は米国の軍事的存在によって支えられているため、米国がその力を維持することが重要であると結論付けている​
　ミアシャイマーは日本については言及していないが、彼のの主張を踏まえると、米国の力の低下は東アジアに位置する日本にとっても重大な意味を持つことが明らかだ。米国にとっては、ロシアよりも中国の台頭のほうが深刻な脅威であると見なされており、米国が中国に対抗するために東アジアへの軍事的・経済的資源を優先的に投入する必要が生じている。その一方で、ロシアの脅威が低下するわけでもなく、米国が欧州の安定維持にも注力せざるを得なくなれば、東アジアにおける安全保障へのリソース配分が制約され、日本の安全保障に対する米国の支援が相対的に弱まる。当然、日本は防衛負担の増加に直面し、中国の影響力が拡大するなかで自主的な防衛力の強化や、他のアジア諸国との安全保障協力を模索する必要性に迫られる。米国の影響力が低下すれば、地域のパワーバランスを大きく変動させ、中国が東アジアでの支配的地位を確立しようとする動きを強める。日本にとって米国の衰退と多極化世界は、安易に受け入れられるものではない。

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Cambridge Union Society Debate Info:
Professor John J. Mearsheimer speaks as the second opposition for the motion in the Debating Chamber at 8pm on Thursday 31st October 2024.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Fxl5N73Q8o

John J. Mearsheimer:

Thank you very much for the kind introduction and for inviting me here tonight. There’s no doubt that the United States has declined in recent years. We’ve moved from a unipolar to a multipolar world, and in terms of relative power, China and Russia are now much stronger compared to the United States than they were during the unipolar moment. The question we’re addressing tonight is whether we should welcome further decline in America’s position in the world. My argument is that it’s not in the interests of the United States, Britain, or Europe to welcome a further decline in American power. Indeed, it was never in our interest to welcome any decline in American power. From America’s perspective—and Europe’s too, including Britain—it would be best if we still lived in a unipolar world.

Now, before I dive into my main argument, I want to make two preliminary points. First, as Michael mentioned in his opening comments, whether American decline is seen as good or bad depends heavily on who you ask. From a Russian, Chinese, North Korean, or Iranian perspective, American decline might indeed look favorable. But tonight, I’m making the case that from the United States', Britain’s, and Europe’s points of view, American decline is not beneficial.

Secondly, I want to make clear that I agree with some criticisms of the United States that have been voiced tonight. For example, Mary mentioned certain issues; I disagree with her about the Ukraine war, but we both agree that the situation in Gaza is a tragedy, a genocide in which the United States is complicit. So, my argument here is not that America is a noble or virtuous nation that does nothing but good worldwide. I recognize that the U.S. has made its share of mistakes. My position is more practical: as a realist, I’m focusing on power politics, not moral virtue.

Let me start with the American case, and then address the European case, focusing on Britain as well. We live in a world where there’s no higher authority, and in such a world, where no authority exists to protect you, the best way to ensure survival is to be powerful. As we used to say on New York City playgrounds when I was a kid, “You want to be the biggest and baddest dude on the block.” Not because you want to harm others, but because being the biggest and baddest is the best way to protect yourself.

So, speaking as an American, I want the United States to be a particularly powerful state because that’s the best way to maximize security. If you’re weak, you become prey for other states. Look at China’s experience: the “century of national humiliation” from the 1840s to the 1940s, during which they were weak and fell victim to other great powers. China learned from this, and today, they’re determined to avoid that kind of vulnerability. The Chinese want to be the dominant power in Asia and not allow the United States to surpass them. But as an American, I want to ensure that we are more powerful than China. I want the United States to remain the most powerful country on the planet.

Now, think about NATO expansion into Eastern Europe. Russia was strongly opposed to NATO expansion since the beginning. In 1999, during the first wave of NATO expansion, Russia protested, but we pushed it through. In 2008, at the NATO summit in Bucharest, Russia made it clear they didn’t want Ukraine to join NATO, but we disregarded their concerns because they were weak. Had Russia been strong, there would have been no NATO expansion.

As an American, I want the United States to be the biggest and baddest force because that’s how we ensure our security. I recognize that we sometimes act in ways that are controversial, but the priority must be security through strength.

Now, let’s discuss why Europeans, including the British, should want a strong America. The answer is simple: we are committed to being in Europe, and our presence acts as a stabilizing force. The reason we didn’t see conflict in Europe during the unipolar moment or the Cold War was because of the American presence. We are the night watchman of Europe. Europeans may not want us to leave, and every European politician understands that our presence is crucial. If America weakens, we will face increased pressure to pivot to East Asia, where the threat from China is significant. This would risk the stability of Europe.

I’ve long argued that our presence in Europe is important, but that presence is not guaranteed. Should a crisis arise in East Asia, the United States will have to prioritize its resources. Europe needs to understand that a weaker United States could mean a reduced presence in Europe. Therefore, my bottom line is that it is in the interest of Europeans, as well as Americans, to hope that the United States remains wealthy and powerful enough to keep forces in Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia.

As for whether I believe only Western states deserve security, the answer is no. I recognize that from China’s perspective, it is in their best interest for America to decline, and for China to be the dominant power in East Asia. In Beijing, I told Chinese officials that, were I Xi Jinping’s national security adviser, I’d recommend working to push the United States out of East Asia. China’s interests are valid, but as an American, I argue for maintaining American power for our security and that of our allies in Britain and Europe.

Thank you.